Baltika 0-2 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 43%, yet in-form Spartak Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baltika vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Baltika have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Baltika at home: 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Spartak Moscow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Spartak Moscow away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Spartak Moscow are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for Spartak Moscow and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2023, ended Baltika 1–2 Spartak Moscow — a Spartak Moscow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Spartak Moscow — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 40% versus Spartak Moscow 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 40% | Spartak Moscow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.44 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.809 / defence 1.113 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.912 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.115. Data: built from Baltika's last 15 games and Spartak Moscow's last 45.
Result probabilities: Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.33 | Draw 3.49 | Spartak Moscow 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baltika are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spartak Moscow (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baltika if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baltika 43% (last 7 home games) | Spartak Moscow 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Baltika 1.44 / Spartak Moscow 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.809 / def 1.113 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.912 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Baltika (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Spartak Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Baltika 0 - 2 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Baltika vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 43% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baltika and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.81x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.91x) against Baltika's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 15 games and Spartak Moscow's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.49
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Spartak Moscow xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baltika and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Baltika and 1.13 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 5L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Baltika's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.33 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Baltika and Spartak Moscow, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baltika won Spartak Moscow 0-3 Baltika on 26 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
3
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 2, Spartak Moscow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Baltika 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, Spartak Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 50% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 33% of games; Spartak Moscow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Spartak Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 67% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baltika.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Baltika 0-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.44 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 43% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 28%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 40%, Spartak Moscow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.