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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lokomotiv and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Lokomotiv and FC Rostov drew 3-3 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.78 xG and FC Rostov 0.94 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lokomotiv beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Rostov outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.31 / defence 0.98 against FC Rostov attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 56% | Draw 26% | FC Rostov 18%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 57%, FC Rostov 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lokomotiv's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights