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Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Spartak Moscow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.43 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.22 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 31%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Spartak Moscow 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights