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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 32% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 37%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 57%, Spartak Moscow 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights