Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Krylia Sovetov's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Rubin's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 0W, Rubin 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 47% versus Rubin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 41% | Rubin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.63 xG and Rubin 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.979 / defence 1.041 | Rubin attack 0.815 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.140. Rubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Krylia Sovetov games / 17 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 26% | Rubin 22%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Rubin 4.55. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Rubin 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 26% | Rubin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.63 / Rubin 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.979 / def 1.041 | Rubin attack 0.815 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rubin xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Rubin.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 52% chance of winning, Rubin a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 1 | Rubin 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Rubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.98) and Rubin's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.81x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.83
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.60
0.97
Rubin xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.97 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 7W 3D 7L from 17 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 7L across 17 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.29 for Rubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.35 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Rubin have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Rubin away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; Rubin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rubin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Rubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 38%, Rubin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Krylia Sovetov) and 50% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 62% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 50% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Rubin tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Rubin 2-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.63 xG and Rubin 0.97 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rubin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Rubin attack 0.81 / defence 1.40, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 26% | Rubin 22%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 41%, Rubin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.41 PPG, Rubin 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.