FC Rostov 1-4 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Ural fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as FC Rostov welcome Ural to Rostov Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Rostov stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov's home record at Rostov Arena: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ural — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ural have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Rostov 1.20 PPG, Ural 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Rostov, 0 for Ural and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Rostov trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ural trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 82% versus Ural 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Rostov 65% | Ural 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.46 xG and Ural 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.275 / defence 1.376 | Ural attack 0.599 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.116. FC Rostov carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 FC Rostov games / 17 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 28% | Ural 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Ural 4.35. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 75% | Ural 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 28% | Ural 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Rostov 1.46 / Ural 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.275 / def 1.376 | Ural attack 0.599 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Ural xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Ural kick off?
FC Rostov vs Ural kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Ural?
FC Rostov 1 - 4 Ural.
Where is FC Rostov vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Ural part of?
FC Rostov vs Ural is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 49% chance of winning, Ural a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Rostov and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Ural?
Record (1 meetings): FC Rostov 0W | Draws 1 | Ural 0W.
What form are FC Rostov and Ural in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Ural (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (1.27) and Ural's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.59
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.38
0.92
Ural xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.92 for Ural, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 7L across 17 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Rostov on 1.06 PPG, Ural on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ural's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Rostov are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Ural in 24%.
Defensively: Ural in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Ural in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Ural have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Ural away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.00 PPG; Ural away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Ural in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Rostov and Ural runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Ural won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Ural specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
2
Draws
2
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Ural?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, Ural have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Ural 0-1 FC Rostov.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 75%, Ural 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (FC Rostov) and 12% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 38%; Ural in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 12% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Rostov vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of FC Rostov's recent games and 12% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Ural tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ural in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ural run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat FC Rostov 1-4 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.46 xG and Ural 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ural outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.27 / defence 1.38 against Ural attack 0.60 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 49% | Draw 28% | Ural 23%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ural win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 65%, Ural 12%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Ural's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.06 PPG, Ural 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ural (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.