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Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Krylia Sovetov and Rubin drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.66 xG and Rubin 0.88 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Rubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Rubin attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 24% | Rubin 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Rubin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rubin's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights