Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Krylia Sovetov face Rubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samara Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Rubin in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rubin's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Rubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Rubin — a Rubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 51% versus Rubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 47% | Rubin 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Krylia Sovetov surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Rubin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.66 xG and Rubin 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.000 / defence 0.980 | Rubin attack 0.901 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 0.997. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 51 games and Rubin's last 51.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 24% | Rubin 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.80 | Draw 4.10 | Rubin 5.02. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 40% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 24% | Rubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.66 / Rubin 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.000 / def 0.980 | Rubin attack 0.901 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.611 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Rubin xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 0 Rubin.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 56% chance of winning, Rubin a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.00) and Rubin's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.90x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 51 games and Rubin's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.10
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.54
0.88
Rubin xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
4%
26.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.88 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 13W 12D 26L from 51 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 19L across 51 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rubin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.25 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 12D 26L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Rubin have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Rubin away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.33 PPG; Rubin away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Rubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Rubin 0-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Rubin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Krylia Sovetov) and 54% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 58% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 54% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 67% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Krylia Sovetov and Rubin drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.66 xG and Rubin 0.88 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Rubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Rubin attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 56% | Draw 24% | Rubin 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Rubin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.