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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat FC Sochi 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.01 xG and FC Sochi 1.27 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Sochi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.91 / defence 1.32 against FC Sochi attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 53% | Draw 25% | FC Sochi 22%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, FC Sochi 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sochi's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights