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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov and FC Orenburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov and FC Orenburg finished level at 1-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.15 xG and FC Orenburg 1.81 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Orenburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.35 against FC Orenburg attack 1.12 / defence 1.46, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 45% | Draw 23% | FC Orenburg 32%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 51%, FC Orenburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights