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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.55 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.01 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 32% | Nizhny Novgorod 21%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Nizhny Novgorod 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.03 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights