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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lokomotiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Lokomotiv 5-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.13 xG and Lokomotiv 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Lokomotiv attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 31% | Lokomotiv 42%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 57%, Lokomotiv 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights