Baltika 3-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baltika face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baltika host CSKA Moscow at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baltika have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baltika at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, CSKA Moscow stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
CSKA Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baltika at 1.10 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for CSKA Moscow and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Baltika 0–1 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 36% versus CSKA Moscow 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 36% | CSKA Moscow 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.22 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.828 / defence 0.939 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.229 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.281. CSKA Moscow have an above-average attack rating of 1.229, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Baltika's last 25 games and CSKA Moscow's last 55.
Result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 43%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.21 | Draw 3.91 | CSKA Moscow 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baltika 30% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 31% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Baltika 1.22 / CSKA Moscow 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.828 / def 0.939 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.229 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.48
CSKA Moscow xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Baltika 3 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 31% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baltika and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baltika's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 25 games and CSKA Moscow's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.91
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.69
1.48
CSKA Moscow xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Baltika and 1.48 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 6W 5D 14L from 25 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 5L across 25 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 2W 7D 3L across their last 12 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.76 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 72%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 9W 11D 5L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Baltika's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.50 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baltika's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 July 2026: CSKA Moscow 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, CSKA Moscow 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 58% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 75% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 58% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 75% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over CSKA Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.22 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 31% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 43%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baltika win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 36%, CSKA Moscow 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.