Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Krylia Sovetov (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Fakel.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Samara Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fakel have posted 0W 0D 4L from 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Krylia Sovetov's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Fakel and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 70% versus Fakel 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 50% | Fakel 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.63 xG and Fakel 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.987 / defence 1.173 | Fakel attack 0.765 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.271. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Krylia Sovetov games / 10 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 30% | Fakel 24%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Fakel 4.17. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 80% | Fakel 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 30% | Fakel 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.63 / Fakel 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.987 / def 1.173 | Fakel attack 0.765 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fakel xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 2 Fakel.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 46% chance of winning, Fakel a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 3W | Draws 2 | Fakel 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Fakel (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.99) and Fakel's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.77x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.36
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.77
1.14
Fakel xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.14 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 6D 2L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel's form line: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games, 0.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Fakel have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Fakel have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Fakel away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.25 PPG; Fakel away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
2
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
From 7 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Fakel have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fakel tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Krylia Sovetov, 50% for Fakel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Krylia Sovetov and 50% for Fakel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fakel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Fakel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 50% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 50% of Fakel's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Fakel tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fakel in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fakel defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.63 xG and Fakel 1.14 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fakel outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Fakel attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 30% | Fakel 24%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fakel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 50%, Fakel 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Fakel's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.30. Form was overturned, with Fakel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.