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Dynamo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 1-3 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.73 xG and Dynamo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Dynamo attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 47% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 23%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 55%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights