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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.52 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 54% | Draw 27% | Dinamo Makhachkala 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Dinamo Makhachkala 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.98 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights