Krylia Sovetov 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours CSKA Moscow — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
CSKA Moscow's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.20 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have the stronger record — 6 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–1 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 48% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.981 / defence 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.914 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.094. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 54 games and CSKA Moscow's last 54.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.31 | Draw 3.53 | CSKA Moscow 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.28 / CSKA Moscow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.981 / def 0.976 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.914 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 43% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.98x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.91x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 54 games and CSKA Moscow's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.53
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.25
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.98 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 13W 14D 27L from 54 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 13L across 54 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 7D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 13W 6D 7L across their last 26 away games, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.54 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 games (0.98 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 30W 11D 13L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.31 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 4-0 Krylia Sovetov on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Krylia Sovetov) and 46% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 31%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games; CSKA Moscow in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 77% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 28%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.