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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG and Baltika 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Baltika attack 1.11 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 33% | Draw 32% | Baltika 35%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 33%, Baltika 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Baltika's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 2.33 PPG, Baltika 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Baltika managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights