🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Akron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and Akron 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Akron outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Akron attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 52%, Akron 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Akron's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.95 PPG, Akron 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akron win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Akron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights