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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat finished level at 2-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG and Akhmat 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Akhmat outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 26%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.98 PPG, Akhmat 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights