Krylia Sovetov 0-4 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Krylia Sovetov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Solidarnost Samara Arena in Premier League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Zenit's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Zenit have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Zenit — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Zenit have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 63% versus Zenit 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 60% | Zenit 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / defence 0.932 | Zenit attack 1.176 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.330. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 30 games and Zenit's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.23 | Draw 3.77 | Zenit 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Krylia Sovetov 30 games, Zenit 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 1 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.21 / Zenit 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / def 0.932 | Zenit attack 1.176 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Zenit xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 4 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 1) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance of winning, Zenit a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.89) and Zenit's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 30 games and Zenit's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.77
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.66
1.46
Zenit xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.46 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 7L across 30 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 7W 6D 2L from their last 15 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zenit's away record stands at 8W 4D 3L across their last 15 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.73 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Pre-Season
Zenit
Pre-Season
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Pre-Season
Zenit
Pre-Season
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Zenit have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.80 PPG; Zenit away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Zenit in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Zenit have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won Krylia Sovetov 1-5 Zenit.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Krylia Sovetov 0-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 60%, Zenit 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Krylia Sovetov) and 47% (Zenit).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 67% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 47% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 80% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 0-4 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.46 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Zenit attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 60%, Zenit 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Zenit's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.