Khimki 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khimki face Dinamo Makhachkala.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dinamo Makhachkala travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki in Premier League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.45 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.318. Data: built from Khimki's last 0 games and Dinamo Makhachkala's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.53 | Draw 3.55 | Dinamo Makhachkala 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Khimki 0 games, Dinamo Makhachkala 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, matchday 1 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Khimki 1.45 / Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Khimki (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala FAQs
What time does Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Khimki 1 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Premier League fixture (matchday 1) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 40% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dinamo Makhachkala's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khimki's last 0 games and Dinamo Makhachkala's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.55
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Khimki and 1.29 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Pre-Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Khimki (Home) vs Dinamo Makhachkala (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khimki
Pre-Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Khimki
1
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Khimki have won 0, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2025: Dinamo Makhachkala 4-1 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.45 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.