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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Krasnodar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 0-2 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.62 xG and Zenit 0.98 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Krasnodar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.27 / defence 0.87 against Zenit attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 50% | Draw 30% | Zenit 20%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Zenit win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 60%, Zenit 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Zenit's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.26 PPG, Zenit 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights