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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat FC Sochi 5-1 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.87 xG and FC Sochi 0.77 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Krasnodar beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against FC Sochi attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 62% | Draw 25% | FC Sochi 13%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 67%, FC Sochi 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Sochi's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sochi (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights