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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Krasnodar and Baltika share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 25, as FC Krasnodar and Baltika drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 2.10 xG and Baltika 0.89 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baltika outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.47 / defence 0.87 against Baltika attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 65% | Draw 20% | Baltika 15%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 50%, Baltika 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Baltika's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.21 PPG, Baltika 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights