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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Krasnodar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Krasnodar beat Akhmat 2-0 at Ozon Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.68 xG and Akhmat 1.16 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.13 / defence 0.98 against Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 47% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 24%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 58%, Akhmat 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Akhmat's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights