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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 48%, Krylia Sovetov 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khimki's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Khimki 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights