Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khimki face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host Krylia Sovetov at Arena Khimki in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Khimki have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Khimki's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.20 PPG versus Krylia Sovetov's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Khimki, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Khimki 0–0 Krylia Sovetov — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 56% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 48% | Krylia Sovetov 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.880 / defence 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.929 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.054. Data: built from Khimki's last 23 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 53.
Result probabilities: Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.11 | Draw 3.28 | Krylia Sovetov 4.53. Khimki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Khimki 50% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Khimki 1.56 / Krylia Sovetov 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.880 / def 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.929 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Khimki (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Krylia Sovetov xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Khimki 1 - 3 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 47% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Khimki and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khimki's attack rating (0.88) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khimki's last 23 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.28
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Khimki and 1.02 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khimki come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 8D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khimki's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across their last 11 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.13 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Khimki (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khimki
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Khimki's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.27 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 3-0 Khimki.
Khimki's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Khimki have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2025: Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Khimki) and 46% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khimki and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khimki's recent matches and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Khimki's recent games and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Khimki's recent matches and 73% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 48%, Krylia Sovetov 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.