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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Khimki and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khimki and FC Rostov finished level at 1-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.36 xG and FC Rostov 1.79 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.89 / defence 1.30 against FC Rostov attack 1.27 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khimki 27% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 45%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, FC Rostov 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khimki's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights