FC Rostov 0-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Rostov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Rostov welcome Zenit to Rostov Arena in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Rostov stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Rostov at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Zenit — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zenit's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Rostov's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Zenit have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for FC Rostov.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2025, ended FC Rostov 1–2 Zenit — a Zenit win.
Zenit have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
FC Rostov trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Zenit trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 52% versus Zenit 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 37% | Zenit 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Rostov surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Zenit have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 0.63 xG and Zenit 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.643 / defence 0.988 | Zenit attack 1.204 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.070. FC Rostov's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Zenit bring a tight defence (rating 0.718, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Rostov's projected output down. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 59 games and Zenit's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 18% | Draw 30% | Zenit 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 5.42 | Draw 3.39 | Zenit 1.92. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — FC Rostov's lower xG of 0.63 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Rostov's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 40% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 18% | Draw 30% | Zenit 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG FC Rostov 0.63 / Zenit 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.643 / def 0.988 | Zenit attack 1.204 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Zenit (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Zenit xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Zenit FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Zenit kick off?
FC Rostov vs Zenit kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Zenit?
FC Rostov 0 - 1 Zenit.
Where is FC Rostov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Zenit part of?
FC Rostov vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 18% chance of winning, Zenit a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both FC Rostov and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will FC Rostov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Rostov's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.63. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 59 games and Zenit's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
18%
5.42
30%
3.39
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
1.90
1.27
Zenit xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.33
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.27 for Zenit, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 18W 18D 23L from 59 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 39W 14D 6L across 59 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Rostov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 8W 10D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 16W 9D 4L across their last 29 away games, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Rostov are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.86 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Current Season
Zenit
Current Season
FC Rostov (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Current Season
Zenit
Current Season
❓ FC Rostov vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Zenit in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 18W 18D 23L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Zenit have gone 39W 14D 6L in their last 59 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.17 PPG; Zenit away: 1.97 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Zenit in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Aug 2024, when Zenit won Zenit 5-0 FC Rostov.
FC Rostov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Rostov
4
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Zenit?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 0, Zenit have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Zenit 2-2 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 48%, Zenit 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (FC Rostov) and 41% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 52%; FC Rostov have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 41% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Rostov and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of FC Rostov's recent games and 41% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 66% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Rostov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.63 xG and Zenit 1.27 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.64 / defence 0.99 against Zenit attack 1.20 / defence 0.72, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 18% | Draw 30% | Zenit 52%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 37%, Zenit 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.