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Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Rostov 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.63 xG and Zenit 1.27 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.64 / defence 0.99 against Zenit attack 1.20 / defence 0.72, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 18% | Draw 30% | Zenit 52%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 37%, Zenit 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Zenit's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights