FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Krylia Sovetov 3-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 48% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 24%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.40 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights