FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.23x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.94x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.51
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.06
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.25 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.