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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.99 xG and Baltika 0.84 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Baltika 30%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 26%, Baltika 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Baltika's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights