Fakel 0-0 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Fakel take on Rubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Rubin meet at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's home record at Stadion Fakel: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rubin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rubin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Fakel, 1.20 for Rubin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fakel, 2 for Rubin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 32% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 5% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Rubin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 33% versus Rubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 28% | Rubin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.81 xG and Rubin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.621 / defence 0.692 | Rubin attack 1.037 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.279. Fakel's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fakel's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Fakel games / 39 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 28% | Draw 38% | Rubin 34%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Rubin 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Fakel's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 10% | Rubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 28% | Draw 38% | Rubin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Fakel 0.81 / Rubin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.621 / def 0.692 | Rubin attack 1.037 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rubin xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Rubin kick off?
Fakel vs Rubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Rubin?
Fakel 0 - 0 Rubin.
Where is Fakel vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Rubin part of?
Fakel vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 28% chance of winning, Rubin a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Fakel and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Rubin?
Record (2 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 2W.
What form are Fakel and Rubin in?
Fakel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Rubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Fakel vs Rubin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.62) and Rubin's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (1.04x) against Fakel's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
38%
2.67
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.72
0.92
Rubin xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Fakel and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Fakel and 0.92 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel's recent record stands at 8W 13D 18L from 39 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 14L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rubin by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fakel heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 5W 9D 5L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.10 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Rubin in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 8W 13D 18L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Rubin have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.26 PPG; Rubin away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Fakel or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fakel
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Rubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Rubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Rubin 2-1 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 32% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (Fakel) and 42% (Rubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 5% for Fakel and 42% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Rubin in 32%; Fakel have failed to score in 53% of games; Rubin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Fakel's recent matches and 42% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 5% of Fakel's recent games and 42% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Rubin tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 32% of their recent matches, Rubin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 10, as Fakel and Rubin drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.81 xG and Rubin 0.92 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.62 / defence 0.69 against Rubin attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 28% | Draw 38% | Rubin 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 28%, Rubin 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.