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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fakel.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Fakel 0-2 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.03 xG and FC Rostov 1.16 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Rostov outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.61 / defence 0.90 against FC Rostov attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fakel 30% | Draw 35% | FC Rostov 36%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 26%, FC Rostov 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fakel's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Rostov's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Rostov arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Fakel (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights