Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dinamo Makhachkala face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zenit travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dinamo Makhachkala are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zenit — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Zenit have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dinamo Makhachkala's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Zenit have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Dinamo Makhachkala. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 0–4 Zenit — a Zenit win.
Zenit have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Dinamo Makhachkala in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 41% versus Zenit 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Zenit 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dinamo Makhachkala surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Zenit have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 xG and Zenit 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.935 / defence 0.982 | Zenit attack 1.194 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.091. Data: built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 54 games and Zenit's last 54.
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 34% | Draw 27% | Zenit 39%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.93 | Draw 3.67 | Zenit 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dinamo Makhachkala's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 34% | Draw 27% | Zenit 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 / Zenit 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.935 / def 0.982 | Zenit attack 1.194 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Zenit (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zenit xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 34% chance of winning, Zenit a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 54 games and Zenit's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.67
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Zenit xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.28 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 11W 19D 24L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Zenit's form line: 35W 13D 6L from 54 games, 2.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Zenit are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dinamo Makhachkala.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 9D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Dinamo Makhachkala are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zenit have gone 14W 8D 4L from their last 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.89 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 19D 24L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Zenit have gone 35W 13D 6L in their last 54 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.38 PPG; Zenit away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Zenit in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Zenit have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Aug 2025, when Zenit won Zenit 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, Zenit have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Zenit 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 46%, Zenit 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 42% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zenit in 50%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 42% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 42% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 69% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 xG and Zenit 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Zenit attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 34% | Draw 27% | Zenit 39%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 26%, Zenit 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.