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Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 xG and Zenit 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Zenit attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 34% | Draw 27% | Zenit 39%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 26%, Zenit 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Zenit's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights