🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Dinamo Makhachkala's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.26 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 35% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 38%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 27%, Spartak Moscow 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights