Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.61x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.98x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
22%
4.45
38%
2.64
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.89
1.11
Rubin xG
4.45
22%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 16.7 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.11 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.