Dinamo Makhachkala 2-3 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rubin make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala at Anzhi Arena this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rubin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.30 for Rubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dinamo Makhachkala lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Rubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Rubin half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 35% versus Rubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 12% | Rubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.79 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.615 / defence 0.874 | Rubin attack 0.980 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.293. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 47 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 38% | Rubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Rubin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rubin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Rubin 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 38% | Rubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.79 / Rubin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.615 / def 0.874 | Rubin attack 0.980 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Rubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rubin xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Dinamo Makhachkala 2 - 3 Rubin.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 22% chance of winning, Rubin a 40% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin?
Record (1 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Rubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.61x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.98x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
22%
4.45
38%
2.64
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.89
1.11
Rubin xG
4.45
22%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 16.7 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.11 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record stands at 3W 8D 6L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 6L across 17 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.35 for Rubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dinamo Makhachkala have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.53 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.29 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Rubin have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.12 PPG; Rubin away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rubin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
4
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Rubin have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Rubin 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 38%, Rubin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 50% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 50% of games; Rubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 62% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 50% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Rubin tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Rubin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-3 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.79 xG and Rubin 1.11 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rubin outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.61 / defence 0.87 against Rubin attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 22% | Draw 38% | Rubin 40%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 12%, Rubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Rubin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 1.00 PPG, Rubin 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.