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Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against FC Rostov attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 37% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 31%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Rostov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 26%, FC Rostov 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.93 PPG, FC Rostov 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights