Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dinamo Makhachkala at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fakel make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala at Anzhi Arena this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Fakel (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dinamo Makhachkala, 0 for Fakel and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dinamo Makhachkala goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 38% versus Fakel 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 12% | Fakel 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 xG and Fakel 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.687 / defence 0.967 | Fakel attack 0.837 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.289. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Dinamo Makhachkala's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 46 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 34% | Fakel 29%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Fakel 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dinamo Makhachkala are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dinamo Makhachkala if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Dinamo Makhachkala 43% | Fakel 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 34% | Fakel 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 / Fakel 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.687 / def 0.967 | Fakel attack 0.837 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Dinamo Makhachkala (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fakel xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 36% chance of winning, Fakel a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dinamo Makhachkala the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel?
Record (1 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 1 | Fakel 0W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Fakel (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Fakel's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.84x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dinamo Makhachkala Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.90
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
Fakel xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.04 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 7D 6L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel's form line: 2W 7D 7L from 16 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 0.81 for Fakel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dinamo Makhachkala come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.69 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Fakel have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Fakel away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.14 PPG; Fakel away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fakel in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel?
From 3 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Fakel have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Fakel 1-2 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 43%, Fakel 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 71% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 43% of games; Fakel in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 57% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 71% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Fakel in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dinamo Makhachkala's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala and Fakel finished level at 0-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.18 xG and Fakel 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fakel landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Fakel attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 36% | Draw 34% | Fakel 29%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 12%, Fakel 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fakel's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 1.00 PPG, Fakel 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.