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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Spartak Moscow 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 3-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.85 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.05 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.29 / defence 0.78 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 54% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 19%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 45%, Spartak Moscow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 2.00 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights