CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as CSKA Moscow face Lokomotiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv meet at VEB Arena in Premier League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, CSKA Moscow have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lokomotiv (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lokomotiv away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for CSKA Moscow, 2 for Lokomotiv and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended CSKA Moscow 0–3 Lokomotiv — a Lokomotiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Lokomotiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 49% versus Lokomotiv 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 44% | Lokomotiv 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.50 xG and Lokomotiv 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.001 / defence 1.240 | Lokomotiv attack 1.000 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.070. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lokomotiv's projected output up. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 59 games and Lokomotiv's last 59.
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 34%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.42 | Draw 3.99 | Lokomotiv 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (CSKA Moscow's last 10 home games and Lokomotiv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | Lokomotiv 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG CSKA Moscow 1.50 / Lokomotiv 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.001 / def 1.240 | Lokomotiv attack 1.000 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lokomotiv xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv FAQs
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
CSKA Moscow 3 - 1 Lokomotiv.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 41% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from CSKA Moscow's attack rating (1.00) and Lokomotiv's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lokomotiv's attack (1.00x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from CSKA Moscow's last 59 games and Lokomotiv's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.99
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
Lokomotiv xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.33 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 31W 14D 14L from 59 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Lokomotiv, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 11L across 59 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.80 for Lokomotiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 17W 5D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lokomotiv's away record stands at 12W 8D 9L across their last 29 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv in 64%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
Lokomotiv
Current Season
CSKA Moscow (Home) vs Lokomotiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
Lokomotiv
Current Season
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Form FAQs
What form are CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 31W 14D 14L in their last 59 games (1.81 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 29W 19D 11L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Lokomotiv away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.93 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.52 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Lokomotiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lokomotiv in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
CSKA Moscow have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 4-1 Lokomotiv on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lokomotiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
CSKA Moscow
3
Draws
2
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have won 5, Lokomotiv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 48%, Lokomotiv 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (CSKA Moscow) and 48% (Lokomotiv).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of CSKA Moscow's games and 66% of Lokomotiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 48% of Lokomotiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 72% of Lokomotiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lokomotiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Lokomotiv 3-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.50 xG and Lokomotiv 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Lokomotiv attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 34%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, Lokomotiv 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.81 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.