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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lokomotiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Lokomotiv 3-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.50 xG and Lokomotiv 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Lokomotiv attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 41% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 34%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, Lokomotiv 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.81 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights