CSKA Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as CSKA Moscow face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
CSKA Moscow's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Rostov's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 0.80 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, CSKA Moscow edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended CSKA Moscow 0–1 FC Rostov — a FC Rostov win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 47% versus FC Rostov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (CSKA Moscow 44% | FC Rostov 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG and FC Rostov 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.984 / defence 1.128 | FC Rostov attack 0.860 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.098. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 55 games and FC Rostov's last 55.
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 38% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 33%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.62 | Draw 3.47 | FC Rostov 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 38% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG CSKA Moscow 1.17 / FC Rostov 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.984 / def 1.128 | FC Rostov attack 0.860 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC Rostov xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 38% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.86x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from CSKA Moscow's last 55 games and FC Rostov's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.47
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
FC Rostov xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.06 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 30W 12D 13L from 55 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 22L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Rostov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 17W 4D 6L from their last 27 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
CSKA Moscow (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 games (1.85 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or FC Rostov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.04 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.15 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 4-0 FC Rostov on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
CSKA Moscow
5
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have won 3, FC Rostov have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: FC Rostov 0-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 44%, FC Rostov 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (CSKA Moscow) and 41% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC Rostov in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 52% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 41% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 70% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov finished level at 1-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG and FC Rostov 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against FC Rostov attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 38% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 33%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, FC Rostov 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.