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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Baltika 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Baltika 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG and Baltika 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baltika landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.35 / defence 0.85 against Baltika attack 1.02 / defence 0.74, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 45% | Draw 31% | Baltika 25%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 56%, Baltika 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.

Baltika's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 2.00 PPG, Baltika 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights