CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 1.20 PPG lead over Akhmat (2.10 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Akhmat winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both CSKA Moscow and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 58% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 49% | Akhmat 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.83 xG and Akhmat 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.217 / defence 0.772 | Akhmat attack 0.736 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.256. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 CSKA Moscow games / 43 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 62% | Draw 26% | Akhmat 12%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Akhmat 8.33. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: CSKA Moscow 70% | Akhmat 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 62% | Draw 26% | Akhmat 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.83 / Akhmat 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.217 / def 0.772 | Akhmat attack 0.736 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Akhmat xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is scheduled to kick off at 16:45 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at VEB Arena.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 62% chance of winning, Akhmat a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (10 meetings): CSKA Moscow 6W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 3W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.74x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
62%
1.61
26%
3.83
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.54
0.71
Akhmat xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
52.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.71 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 22W 11D 10L from 43 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 17L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 1W 10D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.16 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.23 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Akhmat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 64%, Akhmat 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (CSKA Moscow) and 36% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Akhmat in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of CSKA Moscow's games and 59% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 36% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.