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Dominant Baltika run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat FC Sochi 4-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.68 xG and FC Sochi 0.80 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sochi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against FC Sochi attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 58% | Draw 24% | FC Sochi 18%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 14%, FC Sochi 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Sochi's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights